United States presidential election, 2008
The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for Tuesday November 4, 2008, will be the 56th consecutive United States presidential election and will select the President of the United States and Vice President of the United States.
The Republican Party has chosen John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona as its nominee; Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois, has been chosen as the nominee for the Democratic Party. The 2008 election is particularly notable because it is the first time in U.S. history that two sitting senators will run against each other for president, and because it is the first time an African American is a presidential nominee for a major party, as well as the first time both major candidates were born outside the continental United States - Hawaii for Obama and the Panama Canal Zone for McCain. With African American candidate Barack Obama, who is of mixed African and Caucasian parentage, as the Democratic Party nominee for President and John McCain's selection of female Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the Republican Party nominee for Vice-President, the eventual winning ticket is very likely to have a historic context, as either the first African American will be elected President along with the first Roman Catholic as Vice President or the first woman will be elected Vice President.
The Libertarian Party has nominated former Congressman Bob Barr, the Constitution Party has nominated pastor and radio talk show host Chuck Baldwin, and the Green Party has nominated former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Ralph Nader declined to seek the Green Party nomination and is running as an independent candidate.
The election will coincide with the 2008 Senate elections in thirty-three states, House of Representatives elections in all states, and gubernatorial elections in eleven states, as well as various state referendums and local elections. As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based partly on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
No incumbents
The 2008 election marks the first time since the 1928 election in which neither an incumbent President nor an incumbent Vice President ran for their party's nomination in the presidential election, and the first time since the 1952 election that neither the incumbent President nor incumbent Vice President is a candidate in the general election.
In the three previous two-term Presidential administrations—those of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton—the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.[ "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 1789-1996", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.]
"Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 2000-2004", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
Leading candidates are senators
The nominees for the major party nominations were both serving United States Senators: Republican candidate John McCain (Arizona) and Democratic candidate Barack Obama (Illinois). It is the first time in history that the two main opponents in the general election are both sitting Senators.
Leading candidates' origins and age
Either candidate would become the first president born outside the Continental United States, as Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii and McCain was born at Coco Solo, Panama Canal Zone, a US naval base. A bipartisan legal review agreed that McCain is a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to become president.[Sidoti, Liz. "Senate agrees McCain is eligible for presidency", Associated Press (2008-03-27). Retrieved 2008-04-18.] Obama, having a white mother and Kenyan father of the Luo ethnic group
Also, if inaugurated on January 20, 2009, McCain would be the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency at age 72 years and 144 days,[Bash, Dana. "With McCain, 72 is the new... 69?", CNN (2006-09-04). Retrieved 2008-05-10.] and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated (Ronald Reagan was 73 years and 350 days old at his second inauguration).["Presidential Inaugural Facts", Miami Herald (1985-01-20). Excerpt via Google News. Retrieved 2008-03-30.] Barack Obama and John McCain are 24 years and 340 days apart in age. This is the largest age disparity between the two major party presidential candidates, surpassing Bill Clinton and Bob Dole (23 years and 28 days apart in age) who ran against each other in 1996.
This is also the first Presidential election since 1976, and only the fourth since the American Civil War, in which none of the four nominees for President and Vice-President from the two major parties have ties of birth or political office to any of the three most populous states in the Union (New York, Texas, or California). Obama was born in Hawaii and represents Illinois, McCain was born in the Panama Canal Zone and represents Arizona, Biden was born in Pennsylvania and represents Delaware, while Palin was born in Idaho and represents Alaska.
Candidates switching parties
Former ambassador Alan Keyes, former Congressman Bob Barr, and businessman Wayne Allyn Root left the Republican Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. Keyes was defeated at the Constitution Party National Convention in a bid for the party's presidential nomination and is currently running as the nominee of the newly formed America's Independent Party. Bob Barr became the Libertarian Party nominee, and Root became Barr's running mate.
Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and former Senator Mike Gravel left the Democratic Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. McKinney won the nomination of the Green Party, and Gravel lost his bid for the Libertarian nomination after being eliminated in the fourth round of voting.
Election controversies
The issues of caging lists and other techniques of voter suppression which gave rise to many 2004 United States election voting controversies have not been addressed by further legislation or a regulatory crackdown, and are predicted by Greg Palast (a reporter who has investigated these controversies) to recur to the extent that they could swing the result.
An allegation that the Republican Party in Michigan plans to challenge the eligibility of voters based on lists of foreclosed homes
Pre-primary campaign
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners.
The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates".
["Winners & Losers", Chuck Todd, MSNBC, May 15, 2007.]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million; the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[ "Campaign Finance: First Quarter 2007 FEC Filings", The Washington Post 2007.] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Ron Paul.[ See also:]
Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.
Primaries and caucuses
Although the nomination process for each of the two major political parties technically continues through June, in previous cycles the candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This trend continued in 2008 on the Republican side, with John McCain locking up the nomination with victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4, but Democrat Barack Obama did not win the nomination until June 3, after a long campaign against Hilary Clinton. Obama has a wide lead in states won, but Democratic state delegate contests have been decided by a form of proportional representation since 1976.[Fact check: Clinton vote claims under scrutiny", WTOP News, Associated Press, May 15, 2008.]
During late 2007, both parties adopted rules against states moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation is supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic Party only allowed four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Initially the Democratic Party leadership said it would strip all Democratic delegates from Florida and Michigan, which had moved their primaries all the way into January. All major candidates agreed officially not to campaign in Florida or Michigan, and Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot. Clinton won a majority of delegates from both states (though 40% voted uncommitted) and subsequently led a fight to fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegates.[Hertzberg, Hendrik (2008-06-02)"Memory Lapse", The New Yorker.com]
Political columnist Christopher Weber notes that while this was self-serving, it was also pragmatic on the part of Clinton should Florida or Michigan voters have not voted for Democrats in the general election based on the Democratic Party's decision regarding the seating of delegates.[Weber, Christopher (2008-05-28) 'Why Hillary Continues To Run' by Hillary, www.aol.com/news] This led to speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. However, on May 31, 2008, a deal was reached by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party that allows for delegates from Michigan and Florida to receive half a vote each.[Cornish, Audie and Greene, David (2008-06-01) DNC Strikes Deal on Florida, Michigan Delegates, www.npr.org]
January 2008
Around the start of the year, support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa: the two upstart campaigns were triumphant. Suddenly John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton's voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV.[ See also: ] By the end of that day, Clinton won the primary by 2 points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.[ See also: ]
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests; in South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.
February 2008
On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama.
Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state United States presidential primary elections was held.
Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands voted for the Democrats and Kansas voted for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day,
Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[ The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.]
March 2008
For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year's Mini Tuesday,[ See also: ] when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted for both parties on March 11.
On March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered this a surprise upset,
April through June 2008
Only one state voted in April: Pennsylvania, which held a primary for both parties on April 22. Hillary Clinton won this Democratic primary, with approximately 55% of the vote. Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses on May 3 by 7 votes out of more than 4,500. On May 6, Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary with 51% of the vote while Barack Obama won in North Carolina with 56% of the vote. Nebraska's Republican and West Virginia's Democratic primaries were held on May 13. In West Virginia, Clinton won with 67% of the vote and 20 of 28 pledged delegates. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon held primaries for both parties. In Kentucky, Clinton won with 65% of the vote to Obama's 31%. In Oregon, Obama defeated Clinton, by a margin of 18%. Idaho voted for Republicans only on May 27. On May 31, Democratic Party officials, after a tense meeting between Clinton supporters and Obama backers, voted to seat all of Florida and Michigan's delegates at the party's convention, with each getting a half-vote.
Party conventions
 April 23-26, 2008: 2008 Constitution Party National Convention held in Kansas City, Missouri.
May 23-26, 2008: 2008 Libertarian National Convention, held in Denver, Colorado.
July 10-13, 2008: 2008 Green Party National Convention, held in Chicago, Illinois.
July 18-20, 2008: 2008 Reform Party National Convention, held in Dallas, Texas.
August 25-28, 2008: 2008 Democratic National Convention, held in Denver, Colorado.
September 1-4, 2008: 2008 Republican National Convention, held in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Presidential and vice-presidential debates
Four debates have been announced by the Commission on Presidential Debates
September 26: First CPD Presidential Debate in Oxford, Mississippi at the University of Mississippi on Foreign Policy & National Security. The debate was formatted into nine nine-minute segments, and the moderator introduced the topics.
October 2: Vice Presidential Debate in St. Louis, Missouri at Washington University in St. Louis. The format and issues have not been decided.
October 7: Second CPD Presidential Debate in Nashville, Tennessee at Belmont University. It will have a town meeting format and will include any issues raised by members of the audience.
October 15: Third CPD Presidential Debate in Hempstead, New York at Hofstra University on Domestic and Economic Policy. Like the first CPD debate, this debate will be formatted into nine nine-minute segments, with the moderator introducing the topics.
A Zogby International poll released on August 15, 2008, indicated that most Republicans and Democrats want Libertarian candidate Bob Barr to be included in the presidential debates. Nearly 70% of independent voters would like to see Barr included. The same poll indicated that nearly half of likely voters, and a majority (59%) of independent voters would like to see independent candidate Ralph Nader included in the debates as well.
Campaign costs
The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).
Although he had said he would not be running for president, published reports indicated that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg had been considering a presidential bid as an independent with up to $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.
With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by many candidates. John McCain,
Internet campaigns
Howard Dean collected large contributions via the internet in his 2004 primary run. In 2008 candidates have gone even further in reaching out to Internet users through their own sites and through sites such as YouTube, MySpace and Facebook.[ See also: ] and Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama have been the most active in courting voters through the Internet.[ See also: See also: ] Anonymous and semi-anonymous smear campaigns traditionally done with fliers and push calling have also spread to the Internet.
Criticism of media coverage
Significant criticism has been leveled at media outlets' coverage of the presidential election season. Erica Jong commented that "our press has become a sea of triviality, meanness and irrelevant chatter".
Some of the questions that many viewers said they considered irrelevant when measured against the faltering economy or the Iraq war, such as why Senator Barack Obama did not wear an American flag pin on his lapel, the incendiary comments of Obama’s former pastor, or Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s assertion that she had to duck sniper fire in Bosnia more than a decade ago.
A similar event occurred earlier at a debate in February where Tim Russert of NBC News for what was perceived as his disproportionately tough questioning of Clinton.
In an op-ed published on April 27, 2008 in The New York Times, Elizabeth Edwards bemoaned that the media covered much more of "the rancor of the campaign" and "amount of money spent" than "the candidates' priorities, policies and principles". She went on to compare much of the media coverage to a soap opera and stated that, as result, "voters who take their responsibility to be informed seriously enough to search out information about the candidates are finding it harder and harder to do so, particularly if they do not have access to the Internet". Edwards continued, "an informed electorate is essential to freedom itself. But as long as corporations to which news gathering is not the primary source of income or expertise get to decide what information about the candidates 'sells,' we are not functioning as well as we could if we had the engaged, skeptical press we deserve". Edwards stated that what was worse is that trends hold out dim hope that the quality of media coverage will improve, stating that "media consolidation is leading to one-size-fits-all journalism." Worst of all, she said, poor media coverage "gives us permission to ignore issues and concentrate on things that don’t matter".
The Project for Excellence in Journalism and Harvard University's Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy conducted a study of 5,374 media narratives and assertions about the presidential candidates from January 1, 2008 through March 9, 2008. The study found that Obama and Clinton received 69 and 67% favorable coverage, respectively, compared to only 43% favorable media coverage of McCain.
Election day through to Inauguration
November 4, 2008: Election Day in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters cast votes for listed presidential candidates but are actually selecting their state's slate of Electoral College members. Although Guam has no votes in the Electoral College, they have held a straw poll for their presidential preferences since 1980. In 2008, their ballot will include Barr, McCain, and Obama. Initially, their legislature passed a law moving that poll forward to gain notoriety for Guam's election;
December 15, 2008: Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.
January 6, 2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress. Members of Congress may object to the certification of a state's electoral votes at this time.
January 20, 2009: Inauguration Day.
Republican Party
Nominees for the Republican Party:
Image:John McCain official photo portrait-cropped-background edit.JPG|Presidential candidate Senator John McCain of Arizona (Campaign Article)
Image:Sarah Palin Germany 3 Cropped.JPG| Vice Presidential candidate
Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska
McCain was nominated by roll call at the 2008 Republican National Convention.
On August 29, Alaska’s youngest as well as its first female governor Sarah Palin was announced as McCain's running mate["Obama: A Cliche is a Terrible Thing to Waste". AsianWeek. Retrieved on 2008-09-05.] at a rally in Dayton, Ohio. She is the first female vice presidential pick on a major party ticket since Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, and the first in the history of the Republican Party.
Democratic Party
Nominees for the Democratic Party:
Image:ObamaBarack.jpg| Presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama of Illinois (Campaign Article)
Image:Joe Biden, official photo portrait 2-cropped.jpg| Vice-presidential candidate
Senator Joe Biden of Delaware
Part way through the roll call, Senator Clinton of New York moved to suspend the rules of the roll call and nominate Obama by acclamation. This was done and the voting was never officially completed.[ Earlier the same day, Clinton had released her delegates, allowing them to vote for Obama.]
Obama is also the nominee of the United Citizens Party in South Carolina.
On August 23, Senator Joe Biden of Delaware was announced as Obama's running mate via a text message to supporters. This was the first time in a presidential campaign where a text message was used for such an announcement. Biden was nominated by acclamation at the convention.
Third party and independent candidates
The following candidates have achieved sufficient ballot access to win the presidency. Due to the effect of the Electoral College on United States presidential elections, candidates must appear on enough ballots to get at least 270 electoral votes in order to win.
Ralph Nader
Image:Naderspeak.JPG|Presidential Candidate Consumer Advocate Ralph Nader of Connecticut (Campaign article)
Image:Matt gonzalez.png|Vice Presidential Candidate
Activist Matt Gonzalez of California
Ralph Nader, consumer advocate, of Connecticut. The two time (1996, 2000) presidential nominee of the Green Party and 2004 independent presidential candidate announced his candidacy for another independent bid in February 2008. He is also on the ballot in some states as the nominee of the Peace and Freedom Party or the newly formed Independent Party.[ (2008-08-21)"Nader's Independent Party nominates him", Ballot Access News. Retrieved on 2008-08-22]
Matt Gonzalez, political activist, of California is Nader's running mate.
Libertarian Party
Nominees for the Libertarian Party:
Image:Bob Barr-2008 cropped.jpg| Presidential Candidate Former Congressman Bob Barr of Georgia (Campaign article)
image: Wayneallynroot.gif |Vice Presidential Candidate
Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada
Bob Barr, former Republican Congressman from Georgia was chosen as the Libertarian Party's nominee for President, at the Libertarian Party National Convention in Denver, Colorado on May 25, 2008.
Wayne Allyn Root of Nevada, author, small business CEO, and TV producer is the vice-presidential nominee.
Constitution Party
Nominee for the Constitution Party:
Image:CBaldwin08.jpg| Presidential Candidate
Dr. Charles "Chuck" O. Baldwin of Pensacola, Florida
(Campaign article)
image:DCastle08.jpg|Vice Presidential Candidate
Darrell Castle of Memphis, Tennessee
Dr. Chuck Baldwin of Florida, pastor, political activist and 2004 Constitution Party vice presidential nominee, received the presidential nomination of the Constitution Party at its national convention in Kansas City, Missouri on April 26, 2008.
Darrell Castle of Tennessee, activist, attorney, and former Marine Corps Lieutenant is the vice-presidential nominee.
Green Party
Nominee for the Green Party:
Image:Cynthia_McKinney_Congressional_photo.jpg| Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney of Georgia (Campaign article)
Cynthia McKinney, former Democratic Congresswoman from Georgia, was chosen as the Green Party's nominee for President at that party's National Convention in Chicago on July 12, 2008. She also received the endorsement of the Workers World Party in July.[World Workers Party formally endoreses McKinney, Independent Political Report, July 17, 2008.]
Rosa Clemente of New York, political hip-hop activist and journalist, is the vice-presidential nominee.
The following candidates appear on fewer state ballots than needed to qualify for the minimum 270 electoral votes required to win the electoral college. These candidates can only theoretically be elected in the unlikely event of a successful write-in campaign, or in the event that no candidate receives 270 or more electoral votes. In the latter scenario, the election of the President would be determined by the House of Representatives.
America's Independent Party
Nominee for the America's Independent Party:
Image:Alan Keyes speech.jpg| Former ambassador Alan Keyes of Maryland (Campaign article)
Alan Keyes, former U.S. ambassador, of Maryland. After unsuccessful attempts to secure the 2008 nominations of the Republican and Constitution parties, Keyes announced his intention to run as the nominee of the newly formed America's Independent Party, and as an independent in states where the party does not have ballot status.
Brian Rohrbough of Colorado, businessman and pro-life activist, is the vice-presidential nominee.
Boston Tea Party
Charles Jay of Florida, 2004 Presidential nominee of the Personal Choice Party, was selected as the nominee for President of the United States at the online Convention of the Boston Tea Party June 15-16, 2008.
Thomas L. Knapp of Missouri, blogger and editor of the online magazine Rational Review, is the vice-presidential nominee.
Prohibition Party
Gene Amondson of Washington, minister and temperance movement activist, received the Prohibition Party's presidential nomination at its national convention on September 13, 2007.
Leroy Pletten of Michigan is the vice-presidential nominee.
Reform Party
Ted Weill of Mississippi was selected as the presidential nominee of the Reform Party at its National convention on July 20, 2008 in Dallas, Texas.
Frank McEnulty of California is the vice-presidential nominee.
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation:
Image:Lariva.jpg| American politician, Gloria La Riva of California
Gloria La Riva of California, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation in January 2008.
Eugene Puryear of Washington D.C. is the vice-presidential nominee.
Socialist Party USA
Nominees for the Socialist Party USA:
Image:Brian Moore Untouched.jpg| Antiwar activist Brian Moore of Florida
image:Wriststrong_3.jpg| Stewart Alexander of California
Brian Moore of Florida received the Socialist Party USA's presidential nomination at its national convention, October 19-21, 2007 in St. Louis, Missouri. He is also the nominee of Liberty Union Party of Vermont.
Stewart Alexander of California is the vice-presidential nominee.
Socialist Workers Party
Róger Calero of New York, journalist, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Socialist Workers Party in January 2008. This is Calero's second run on the party's ballot; however, because he was born in Nicaragua, if he were to win, Calero would nonetheless be ineligible for the Presidency.
Alyson Kennedy is the vice-presidential nominee.
Swing states
Political experts and polling have identified certain swing states where close votes might prove crucial to the outcome of the election.[Tipping Point States]
Swing states include (electoral college votes in brackets):
Colorado (9) The Centennial State held its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively led to Denver being the location of the Convention. A strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear on such issues as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. Polls show Obama with a slight lead.
Florida (27) The key player in 2000, whose votes went narrowly to George W. Bush, making him the winner. Experts agree the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security - two key components of winning the elderly vote - while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American populations in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. For Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban American attention has made it a strong contender. Polls show McCain with a moderate lead in Florida.
Indiana (11) The state has not voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
Michigan (17) The Great Lakes State has been a fairly safe bet for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made the conservative Republican west more influential. Still, Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm was soundly re-elected in 2006 despite the state having the highest unemployment rate in the country on her watch. Polls show Michigan with a moderate Obama lead.
Minnesota (10) Minnesota has been solidly Democratic in most recent elections, and was the only state that Democrat Walter Mondale successfully won in his 1984 presidential bid. However, the state is seen as “competitive” in most recent polls. The 2008 Republican National Convention was held in the state, and the current governor, Republican Tim Pawlenty, has shown tremendous support for McCain, two factors which could court swing voters. Polls show Minnesota with a slight Obama lead.
Missouri (11) The Show Me State has long been dubbed the bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated very closely with the national Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as stem cell research and universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Democrat Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the Iraq war and a contentious gubernatorial election with a Democratic favorite in Jay Nixon make this state a strong possibility for the Democrats. Polls show McCain with a sizeable lead in Missouri.
Nevada (5) Although Nevada has historically leaned Republican, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic and Latino Americans make it a potential swing state. Its 2006 gubernatorial election was particularly competitive: Republican Jim Gibbons won only by a slim margin. The Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in population has become an attractive destination for Democratic campaign resources, and Democrats are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings - as of June 2008 - of Gibbons and Bush.
New Hampshire (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times. Polls show Obama with a slight lead in New Hampshire.
New Jersey: (15) New Jersey has been solidly Democratic in all elections since the 1990’s, but most recent polls show a changing trend. Barack Obama’s rival, Hillary Clinton, won the state in the primaries and John McCain significantly defeated his other competitors in the primaries. The state has a large number of independents and former Clinton supporters that could deliver this state to John McCain. Current polls show Obama with a lead in the state.
New Mexico (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could tip the balance. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, and Governor Bill Richardson was a contender for the 2008 nomination, and had been widely speculated as a vice presidential candidate. Polls show Obama with a moderate lead in New Mexico.
North Carolina (15) North Carolina has been considered a "safe" Republican state for decades. It last supported a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976. An average of the five most recent five polls shows Obama to have a slight lead in North Carolina.
Ohio (20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for The Cincinnati Enquirer.
Pennsylvania (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated in March 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key swing state."[.] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.
Virginia (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's winning the Governor's Mansion in 2005, Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen, and in the 2007 when the Democrats reached a majority in the State Senate election. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state also is part of the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area the second highest income metropolitan area in the country, tends to lean Democratic. Virginia also has a large African American population, which could benefit a Democratic candidate in a close race. Unique political timing may come into play in Virginia in 2008, as popular former governor and Democrat Mark Warner is running for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (no relation). His popularity could be a significant asset to Obama in Virginia. Polls show Obama with a moderate lead in Virginia.
Washington (11) Washington state went for Kerry in 2004 and Gore in 2000, but polls are showing the state trending more Republican in this election than in previous elections. The state was close in both previous contests, and will likely be close this time. Both McCain and Obama won the state in the primaries. Current polls show Obama with a sizeable lead in Washington.
Wisconsin (10) Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results previously, so Wisconsin may be trending Republican in presidential elections, though Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore. Polls show Obama with a slight lead in Wisconsin.
The swing states listed above total 210 electoral votes; some may become "safe" for one party as the election progresses. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive, 163 electoral votes (Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming) are likely to go to the Republican party, while 165 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont) are expected to go to the Democrats. Maine and Nebraska have rules which allow a split in their electoral votes depending on results in congressional districts; no split is currently expected in this election.
Opinion polling
Nationwide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
Scientific forecasts: PollyVote
See also
History of the United States (1991–present)
References
External links
2008 Presidential Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Campaign 2008 at Council on Foreign Relations
Religion & Politics 2008 at Pew Research Center
Politics1
Select2008
Who Is Who in the 2008 Elections
Candidate Videos at Election.tv
Biography of all the candidates, polls
List of all presidential candidates for the 2008 Election
Lindsay politics 101-Blog coverage of all elections
US Election 2008 Web Monitor
2008 Election at ProCon.org
Presidential Candidates' Health Reform Proposals
2008 Presidential Debate Website of first Presidential Debate
2008 Electoral Map
and
;Campaign contributions
FEC - Presidential Campaign Finance
OpenSecrets.org - Race for the White House
Campaign Contributions to Presidential Candidates in the 2008 Election
;News media
Election Center 2008 from CNN
US Elections 2008 from Guardian Unlimited
Campaign '08 from The Los Angeles Times
Presidential Election of 2008 from The New York Times
Vote 2008 from The Online NewsHour
Presidential Candidates from The Wall Street Journal
The Presidential Field from The Washington Post
BBC News US Elections 2008 from BBC News
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